Mubasher: The base-case scenario by S&P Global Ratings remains that the military confrontation in the Middle East will be relatively short-lived and the most intense part would last around two-to-four weeks, although broader spillovers and intermittent security incidents could extend beyond this period.
According to a recent statement, S&P Global Ratings said it expects that most rated insurers in GCC have sufficiently robust capital buffers to absorb a potential increase in capital market volatility and any war-related claims, as these are either heavily reinsured or subject to exclusion clauses.
“We now anticipate a slowdown in revenue growth in most GCC insurance markets in 2026, following double-digit growth in recent years,” S&P Global Ratings noted.
The extent of this slowdown will likely vary by market and will also depend on the duration of the war, according to the ratings agency.
S&P Global Ratings concluded that it expects ratings on GCC insurers to remain broadly stable in the short-to-medium term.
The expectation is built on “robust earnings generation in recent years, which has contributed to a significant buildup of capital buffers.”
It is worth noting that GlobalData recently stated that reinsurers in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region are generally operating with strong capital buffers.
